000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250831
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Shower activity continues to show signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued 
development, and this system is likely to become a tropical 
depression in the next two or three days. This low pressure area 
is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining
well south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico 
during the next several days. The system has a medium chance of 
formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation
within the next 5 days. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 86W north of 02N, moving 
westward around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 96W/97W north of 02N, moving 
westward around 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb low is along the wave 
axis. Nearby convection is described below. Please see special 
features section above for more on the potential for development
of this low. 

A tropical wave has its axis near 111W north of 03N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N107W to 08N136W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N136W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 84W 
and 93W, and from 06N to 15N between 93W and 104W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 110W and 
120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds 
prevail offshore Baja California with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate
winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are noted in the Gulf of California.
Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail 
elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and building seas associated 
with an area of low pressure will move across the waters south of
southern and southwestern Mexico this week. There is a high 
potential for this low to develop into tropical cyclone within 
the next 5 days. Gentle to moderate NW winds will diminish today. 
Gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of California will diminish
today. NW swell with seas to 6 ft will continue offshore Baja 
California Norte through tonight. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over and downwind of the
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell 
across most of the area.

For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to
fresh through tonight. Across the rest of the area, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section for more information on the 
potential for tropical cyclone development south of Mexico.

The 1014 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle is 
centered near 24N137W. No deep convection is present. Peak seas 
are currently near 6 ft with moderate to locally fresh winds NW 
of the low. The low will weaken into an open wave while 
continuing to move westward today. 

Outside of the remnants of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or
weaker. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across the open Pacific.

For the forecast, the remnants of Estelle will maintain a loose 
pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly 
moderate or weaker across the area for the next few days. By the
middle to end of the week, expect winds and seas to increase east
of 120W in association with the potential tropical cyclone. 

$$
AL