000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250230 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Shower activity is starting to show signs of organization associated with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression in the next few days. This system is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. The system has a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation within the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 85W north of 02N, moving westward around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 95W/96W north of 02N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb low is along the wave axis. Nearby convection is described below. Please see special features section above for more on the potential for TC development of this low. A tropical wave has its axis near 110W north of 03N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N107W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 80W and 93W, from 07N to 15N between 93W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 113W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail offshore Baja California with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are noted in the northern Gulf of California with gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-3 ft across the central and southern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds, and seas to 6 ft, are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds will continue off the Baja California peninsula through tonight before diminishing. Winds are expected to diminish in the Gulf of California through Mon night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell with seas to 6 ft will continue offshore Baja California Norte through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh through Tue night. Across the rest of the area, gentle to moderate winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on the potential for tropical cyclone development south of Mexico. The 1014 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle is centered near 24N136W. No deep convection is present. Peak seas are currently near 6 ft with moderate to locally fresh winds NW of the low. The low will weaken into an open wave while continuing to move westward until dissipation through Mon. Outside of the remnants of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Elsewhere, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, the remnants of Estelle will maintain a loose pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly moderate or weaker across the area for the next few days. By midweek, expect winds and seas to increase in association with the potential tropical cyclone. $$ AL