000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms are starting to show signs of organization associated with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south off the coast of southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by the middle part of this week. This system is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. The system has a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation within the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 87W north of 09N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 95W north of 09N, moving westward around 10 kt. A 1010 mb low is along this axis near 10N95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 91W and 99W. A tropical wave has its axis near 110W north of 03N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 106W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N100W to 11N115W to 09N135W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N and E of 87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 99W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail offshore Baja California with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the northern Gulf of California with moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-4 ft across the central and southern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds, and seas to 6 ft, are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along the coastlines of Oaxaca and Guerrero and in their respective offshore waters. A trough is noted SW of Baja California from 18N114W to 23N110W with showers and isolated thunderstorms within 100 nm of the feature. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds will continue off the Baja California peninsula through tonight before diminishing. Winds are expected to become gentle to moderate in the Gulf of California by tonight and light to gentle by Mon night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell with seas to 6 ft will continue offshore Baja California Norte through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Colombia and Central America. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, winds across Papagayo will pulse to fresh through Tue night. Across the rest of the area, gentle to moderate winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section on more information on the system several hundred miles south of southeast Mexico. The 1013 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle is centered near 23N135W. No deep convection is present. Peak seas are currently near 6 ft with fresh winds NW of the low. The low will weaken into an open wave while continuing to move westward until dissipation through Mon. Outside of the remnants of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Elsewhere, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. A trough extends from 13N131W to 20N132W with showers and thunderstorms noted within 100 nm of the feature. For the forecast, the remnants of Estelle will maintain a loose pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly moderate or weaker across the area for the next few days. By midweek, expect winds and seas to increase in association with the potential tropical cyclone. $$ AReinhart