000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240232 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 83W/84W north of 02N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 92W north of 02N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 107W north of 01N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N124W to 09N137W. The ITCZ continues from 09N137W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 80W and 87W, from 08N to 15N between 90W and 96W, from 06N to 11N between 97W and 125W, and from 06N to 13N between 125W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail offshore Baja California with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with moderate to fresh winds across the central and southern Gulf. Seas range 3-4 ft across the Gulf. Fresh northerly winds, and seas to 5 ft, are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds will continue off the Baja California peninsula through Sun night before diminishing. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail over the Gulf of California through tonight, then diminish slightly through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell with seas to 7 ft will continue offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Colombia and Central America. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, winds across Papagayo will pulse to fresh through Mon night. Across the rest of the area, gentle to moderate winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1012 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle is centered near 24N132.5W. No deep convection is present. Peak seas are currently near 7 ft with fresh winds N of the low. The low will weaken into an open wave while continuing to move westward until dissipation by Mon into Tue. Outside of the remnants of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Elsewhere, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, the remnants of Estelle will maintain a loose pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly moderate or weaker across the area for the next few days. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles off the coast of extreme southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week. The disturbance is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. There is a low chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance in 5 days. $$ AL