000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 83W north of 02N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 91W north of 02N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 108W north of 01N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 09N100W to 11N120W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 78W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N betWeen 101W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail offshore Baja California with seas 5 to 6 ft in NW swell. Seas are reaching 7 ft in the far NW corner of the Baja California Norte offshore waters. Fresh to strong winds continue in the northern Gulf of California with moderate to fresh winds across the central and southern Gulf. Seas range 3-4 ft across the Gulf. Fresh northerly winds are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. Seas range 4-5 ft. Scattered thunderstorms continue to move across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Oaxaca offshore waters. An area of strong thunderstorms are moving near and south of Cabo San Lucas from 20N to 25N between 106W and 112W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds will continue off the Baja California peninsula through Sun night before diminishing light to gentle. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail over the Gulf of California through tonight, then diminish slightly to moderate to fresh speeds through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell with seas to 7 ft will continue offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Colombia and Central America. Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with gentle E winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate S to SW winds are elsewhere north of 02N, with gentle winds south of the equator. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, winds will continue pulsing to fresh through Mon night across Papagayo. Across the rest of the area, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1012 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle is centered near 24N132W. No deep convection is present. Peak seas are currently near 7 ft with the latest ASCAT showing fresh winds N of the low. The low will weaken into an open wave while continuing to move westward until dissipation by Mon into Tue. Outside of the remnants of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Elsewhere, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. A trough is analyzed from 14N128W to 20N127W with showers and isolated thunderstorms noted within 75 nm of the feature. For the forecast, the remnants of Estelle will maintain a loose pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly moderate or weaker across the area for the next few days. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week. The disturbance is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 kt remaining well south of the coast of southern Mexico. There is a low chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance in 5 days. $$ AReinhart