000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 81W north of 02N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 90W north of 02N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 106W north of 02N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N100W to 10N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 90W and 99W and from 06N to 16N between 104W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail offshore Baja California with seas 5 to 6 ft in NW swell. Fresh to strong winds continue in the northern Gulf of California with moderate to fresh winds across the central and southern Gulf. Seas range 3-4 ft across the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. Seas range 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted across the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 11N to 17N between 92W and 98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is moving off the southwest Mexico coast into the offshore waters from 17N to 24N between 103W and 107W. Showers are also noted in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds will continue off the Baja California peninsula through this weekend before diminishing light to gentle. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail over the Gulf of California through tonight, then diminish slightly to moderate to fresh speeds through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell will build seas slightly offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Colombia and Central America. Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with gentle E winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate S to SW winds are elsewhere north of 02N, with gentle winds south of 02N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, winds will continue pulsing to fresh through early next week across Papagayo. Across the rest of the area, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1012 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle is centered near 24N131W. No deep convection is present. Peak seas are currently near 7 ft with fresh winds NW of the low. The low will weaken into an open wave by tonight while continuing to move westward to slightly north until dissipation. Outside of the remnants of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Elsewhere, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, the remnants of Estelle will maintain a loose pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly moderate or weaker across the area for the next few days. An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next day or two a few hundred miles south of extreme southeastern Mexico. Gradual development is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a low chance of formation over the next 48 hours and a medium chance of formation within the next 5 days. $$ AReinhart