000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230830 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 81W north of 01N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 89W north of 01N, moving westward around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 105W north of 01N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N118W to 12N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 83W and 88W, from 10N to 14N between 88W and 94W, from 06N to 11N between 102W and 130W, and from 09N to 13N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW winds prevail offshore Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the southern half of the Gulf of California, with moderate winds over the northern half. Seas are mainly 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell across the open waters except in mixed NW swell offshore Baja California, 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the remainder of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds will continue off the Baja California peninsula through this weekend before diminishing. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail over the Gulf of California through Sat night, then diminish slightly to moderate to fresh speeds through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell will build seas slightly offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Colombia and Central America. Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with gentle E winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate S to SW winds are elsewhere north of 02N, with gentle winds south of 02N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1011 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle is centered near 23.5N131W. No deep convection is present. Peak seas are currently near 8 ft with fresh winds NW of the low. A westward to slightly north of westward motion is expected to continue until dissipation this weekend. Outside of the remnants of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Elsewhere, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific, locally to 8 ft near 03.4S west of 110W. For the forecast, the remnants of Estelle will maintain a loose pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly moderate or weaker across the area for the next few days. An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend several hundred nautical miles south of extreme southeastern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter through midweek while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt. $$ AL