000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1910 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 78W from near the border of Ecuador and Colombia northward across eastern Panama and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 90W just northeast of the Galapagos Islands north of 01N, moving westward around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis near 105W north of 01N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from across Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N110W to 12N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 84W, from 09N to 14N between 87W and 92W, from 10N to 14N between 100W and 105W, and within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough west of 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted offshore Baja California, with the strongest winds within 60 nm of the coast. Moderate winds are elsewhere from Cabo San Lucas to the Revillagigedo Islands, and near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell across the open waters except in mixed NW swell offshore Baja California, 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the remainder of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will continue off the Baja California peninsula and southwestern Mexico through this evening. Southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong over the Gulf of California tonight through Sat night, then diminish slightly to moderate to fresh speeds through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell will build seas slightly offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Colombia and Central America. Gentle E winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate S to SW winds are elsewhere north of 02N, with gentle winds south of 02N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1010 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Estelle is centered near 23N129.5W. No deep convection is present. Peak seas are currently near 9 ft with fresh to locally strong remnant winds. A westward to slightly north of westward motion is expected to continue until dissipation this weekend. Outside of the remnants of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Elsewhere, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific, locally 8 ft near 03.4S west of 110W. For the forecast, the remnants of Estelle will maintain a loose pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly moderate or weaker across the area for the next few days. An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend several hundred nautical miles south of extreme southeastern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter through midweek while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt. $$ Lewitsky