605 AXPZ20 KNHC 212048 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Estelle is centered near 22.3N 126.5W at 21/2100 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. No deep convection is present. A westward to slightly north of westward motion is expected to continue until dissipation this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 89W/90W northeast of the Galapagos Islands and north of 02W, moving very slowly around 5 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis along 101W/102W north of 02N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from across Panama to near the Papagayo region at 11N86W to 10N102W to 12N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 77W and 93W, from 06N to 14N between 93W and 114W, and from 10N to 13N between 122W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are occurring offshore Baja California, with the strongest winds within 60 nm or so of the coast. Moderate winds are elsewhere from Cabo San Lucas to the Revillagigedo Islands and to Cabo Corrientes, as well as along the mainland coast of Mexico in the central and southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell across the open waters, 4 to 5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the remainder of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will continue off the Baja California peninsula and southwestern Mexico through Fri. Southerly winds are forecast to develop and increase to fresh to strong over the Gulf of California Fri night and Sat, then diminish slightly to moderate to fresh speeds into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun morning through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Colombia and Central America. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to fresh in and downwind of the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, a tropical wave along 90W could increase winds to fresh to strong speeds well offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua tonight through early Fri as possible, broad low pressure forms along it. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters thereafter, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on recently downgraded Post-tropical cyclone Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, except fresh to strong from roughly 05N to 10N between 90W and 100W where a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located near a pair of tropical waves, along with seas to around 8 ft. Post-tropical Estelle continues to help support a weak pressure gradient across most of the area. Elsewhere, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific. For the forecast, Post-tropical cyclone Estelle and the remnants thereof will continue to weaken the pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly moderate or weaker across the area for the next few days. $$ Lewitsky