000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211448 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Estelle is centered near 22.7N 125.5W at 21/1500 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 13 ft. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm in the southeast quadrant of Estelle. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Estelle is forecast to become a remnant low this evening, and to dissipate Sat evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 89W northeast of the Galapagos Islands and north of 02W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave has its axis along 100W north of 02N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from across Panama to 09N84W to 10N103W to 09N111W to 13N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 77W and 106W, from 07N to 12N between 106W and 120W, and from 10N to 13.5N between 122W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring offshore and near Cabo San Lucas, with moderate to fresh NW winds offshore and near Cabo Corrientes. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as offshore of Baja California within 60 nm or so of the coast, and elsewhere from Baja California Sur to the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell across the open waters, and near the entrance to the Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and southwestern Mexico later today through tonight, with locally strong winds possible off Cabo San Lucas through this morning. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong over the Gulf of California Fri night and Sat, then diminish slightly to fresh speeds into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Colombia and Central America. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except for fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell across most of the area. For the forecast, fresh winds will continue off Papagayo through the remainder of this morning. A tropical wave along 89W could increase winds to fresh to strong speeds well offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua this afternoon through tonight as possible low pressure forms along it. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters thereafter, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. This is because Estelle continues to help support a weak pressure gradient across most of the area. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific, away from Estelle. Tropical Depression Estelle will become a remnant low and move to 23.0N 126.8W this evening, move to 23.4N 128.5W Fri morning, 23.6N 129.9W Fri evening, 23.8N 131.2W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat evening. Estelle and the remnants thereof will continue to weaken the pressure gradient equatorward, keeping trade winds mainly moderate or weaker across the area. $$ Lewitsky