000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 22.3N 124.3W at 21/0900 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 16 ft near the center. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 45 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Continued weakening is expected, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Estelle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 87/88W N of 03W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04.5N to 10N between 82W and 91W. A tropical wave has its axis along 98W N of 03N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 92W and 104W, mainly due to the interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N112W to 12N123W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 06.5N between 77W and 79W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 104W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ASCAT satellite data show fresh NW winds near Cabo Corrientes. Moderate NW winds are likely occurring elsewhere from Manzanillo to Punta Eugenia, and in the southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. A recent altimeter pass from 21/0700 UTC shows seas around 6 ft offshore of Baja California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across most of the Mexican waters, 3 to 5 ft in the southern Gulf of California, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and southwestern Mexico later today through tonight, with locally strong winds possible off Cabo San Lucas through this morning. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong over the Gulf of California Fri night and Sat, then diminish slightly to fresh speeds into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except for fresh in the Papagayo region. Recent ASCAT satellite data show moderate to fresh S to SW winds equatorward of the monsoon trough in the waters well offshore, while gentle to moderate winds prevail closer to the coast. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell across most of the area. For the forecast, fresh winds will continue off Papagayo through this morning. A tropical wave along 88W could increase winds to fresh speeds well offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua this afternoon through tonight as possible low pressure forms along it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are moderate or weaker. This is because Estelle is weakening the pressure gradient across most of the area. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across the open Pacific, away from Estelle. Tropical Storm Estelle will weaken to a remnant low later today near 22.6N 125.7W, move to 23.5N 131.4W Sat, then dissipate Sat evening. Estelle will continue to weaken the pressure gradient equatorward, leading to trade winds becoming light and variable across the area. $$ Hagen