000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 21.8N 123.2W at 21/0300 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas at this time reach 20 ft near the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. Continued weakening is expected, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by late Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Estelle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 86W N of 03W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 11N between 77W and 90W. A tropical wave has its axis along 97W N of 02N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 12N between 90W and 100W, mainly due to the interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N85W to 10N112W to 12N123W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 100W and 114W. Isolated moderate convection is noted along and within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 114W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Seas well offshore Baja California Sur have subsided to 7 ft or less now as Tropical Storm Estelle continues to move farther away. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds are likely occurring near Cabo Corrientes, with moderate NW winds elsewhere from Manzanillo to Punta Eugenia, and in the southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across most of the Mexican waters, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and southwestern Mexico through Thu night, and locally strong winds off Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas will develop tonight through Thu morning. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong over the northern Gulf of California Fri night and Sat, then diminish slightly to fresh speeds into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring offshore Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate S to SW winds are equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell across most of the area. For the forecast, fresh winds will continue off Papagayo through early Thu. A tropical wave along 86W could increase winds to fresh speeds well offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua Thu night into Fri as possible low pressure forms along it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are moderate or weaker. This is because Estelle is weakening the pressure gradient across most of the area. Seas are generally 5 to 6 ft across the open Pacific, well away from Estelle. Tropical Storm Estelle will weaken to a remnant low near 22.6N 126.5W Thu evening, 23N130W Sat, then dissipate Sat evening. Estelle will continue to weaken the pressure gradient equatorward, leading to trade winds becoming light and variable across the area. $$ Hagen