000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 21.2N 120.7W at 20/1500 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas at this time can reach 23 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Estelle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 83W N of 04W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm E of the wave and N of 04N. A tropical wave has its axis along 95W N of 02N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-15N between 89W-102W, mainly due to the interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N95W to 14N112W. The boundary resumes near 15N118W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm S of the boundary and E of 115W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough W of 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are rather tranquil across the Mexican zones. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail over the far northern Gulf of California. Seas are 6-7 ft in the offshore zones south of the state of Michoacan, mainly due to a moderate SW swell, 4-6 ft in the southern Gulf of California, 1-3 ft in the central part of the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the northern part of the Gulf. Higher seas of 6-9 ft due to a SE-S south swell generated by Estelle are in the offshore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, and in the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Estelle will move to 21.6N 122.3W this evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 124.2W Thu morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 22.5N 125.7W Thu evening. Estelle will dissipate this weekend. In the wake of Estelle, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and southwestern Mexico through Thu, and locally strong winds off Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas will develop tonight through late Thu. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to remain pretty quiet through Fri. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong over the northern Gulf of California Fri night and Sat, then diminish slightly to fresh speeds into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... E winds are gentle to moderate north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region. S to SW winds are moderate equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell across most of the area. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse off Papagayo through early Thu. Elsewhere, winds should rather tranquil across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones through Thu. A tropical wave along 83W could increase winds to fresh speeds well offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua Thu night into Fri as possible low pressure forms along it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging extends across the northern part of the area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is resulting in generally moderate NE trades from 13N to 25N and W of 125W. Seas of 6-7 ft prevail across the High Seas waters. Tropical Storm Estelle will move to 21.6N 122.3W this evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 124.2W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 22.5N 125.7W Thu evening, 22.9N 127.0W Fri morning, 23.2N 128.2W Fri evening, and 23.5N 129.5W Sat morning. Estelle will dissipate early Sun. Estelle should allow for a weakening of the pressure gradient equatorward leading to trade winds becoming light and variable. $$ ERA