005 AXPZ20 KNHC 201004 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 20.6N 119.4W, or about 550 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California at 20/0900 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the earlier observed deep convection has decreased during the overnight hours as cloud tops have warmed. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of the center in the NE and SE quadrants, and within 30 nm in the W and NW quadrants. Peak seas are about 23 ft. The current west-northwest motion, with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days or so. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Estelle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 81W north of 04W, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 06N to 09N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 06N to 08N. A tropical wave has its axis along 94W north of 03N, moving westward near 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 15N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 11N to 15N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 09N95W to 09N102W and NW to 11N110W. It resumes SW of Estelle near 13N122W to 13N131W and to beyond 12N140W. Aside from the convection described above in the Tropical Wave section, numerous moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 07N between 77W-79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 82W-86W, also from 09N to 13N between 110W-113W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 97W-99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 102W-119W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 122W-127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are rather tranquil across the Mexican zones. The earlier fresh southerly winds that were over the far northern Gulf of California have diminished to gentle to moderate per latest overnight ASCAT pass. Seas are 6-7 ft in the offshore zones south of the state of Michoacan, mainly due to a moderate SW swell, 4-6 ft in the southern Gulf of California, 1-3 ft in the central part of the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the northern part of the Gulf. Higher seas of 6-9 ft due to a SE-S south swell generated by Estelle are in the offshore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, and in the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Estelle will gradually weaken as it moves to near 20.8N 119.8W Wed morning, and to near 21.4N 121.8W Wed evening, with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. As Estelle pulls farther away from the the southern tip of Baja California, conditions will improve in the offshore waters of southern Baja California. In the wake of Estelle, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and southwestern Mexico today through Thu, except for locally strong winds off Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas tonight through late Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to remain pretty quiet through Fri. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong over the northern Gulf of California Fri night and Sat, then diminish slightly to fresh speeds into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... E winds are gentle to moderate north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region. S to SW winds are moderate equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell across most of the area. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse off Papagayo through early Thu. Elsewhere, winds should rather tranquil across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones through Thu. A tropical wave along 81W could increase winds to fresh speeds well offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua Thu night into Fri as possible low pressure forms along it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging extends across the northern part of the area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is resulting in generally moderate NE trades from 13N to 27N between 124W-140W. Seas are 7-8 ft in SE swell south of the the equator between 103W-120W and 6-7 ft in the remainder of the High Seas waters. Tropical Storm Estelle, centered near 20.6N 119.4W at 20/0900 UTC, or about 550 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, with maximum winds of 50 kt with gusts 60 kt is affecting the waters from 15N to 25N between 111W-123W. Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thu, reaching to near 22N125W Thu afternoon as it tracks over the open Pacific through late Fri. Estelle and its post- tropical remnant low should allow for a weakening of the pressure gradient equatorward leading to trade winds becoming light and variable. The aforementioned SE swell will gradually decay through early Thu. $$ Aguirre