000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200323 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 20.2N 118.0W at 20/0300 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Similar convection is within 30 nm of a line from 19N119W to 19N117W. Peak seas are about 23 ft. The west- northwest motion should continue for the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wed, and Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 80W north of 04W, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 06N to 08N, including the southern parts of southern Costa Rica and the northern part of Panama. A tropical wave has its axis along 93W north of 03N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 09N to 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 09N95W to 09N102W and to 11N109W. It resumes SW of Estelle near 13N123W to 13N132W and to beyond 12N140W. Aside from the convection described above in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 09N to 13N between 102W-109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 113W-120W, and from 11N to 14N between 120W-123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are tranquil across the Mexican zones, except for the far northern Gulf of California, where the latest ASCAT shows fresh southerly winds. Seas are 6-7 ft in the offshore zones, mainly from moderate SW swell, 4-6 ft in the southern Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft in the N and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Estelle will gradually weaken as it moves to near 20.8N 119.8W Wed morning, and to near 21.4N 121.8W Wed evening, with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. As Estelle pulls farther away from the the southern tip of Baja California, conditions will improve in the offshore waters of southern Baja California. In the wake of Estelle, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexico on Wed and Thu, locally strong off Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas Wed night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to remain quiescent through Fri. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong over the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... E winds are gentle to moderate north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region. S to SW winds are moderate equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell across most of the area. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse off Papagayo through Wed. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones through Thu. A tropical wave along 80W could increase winds to fresh well offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua Thu night into Fri. Large S swell occurring over the equatorial zones will gradually diminish through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging extends across the northern part of the area. The moderate pressure gradient from the ridge to the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing generally moderate NE trades from 14N to 30N between 123W and 140W. Seas are 7-8 ft in SE swell south of the the equator between 103W and 120W and 6-7 ft in the remainder of the High Seas waters. Tropical Storm Estelle, centered near 20.2N 118.0W at 20/0300 UTC, or about 480 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, with maximum winds of 55 kt gusts 65 kt is affecting the waters from 15N to 25N between 111W-123W. Estelle is forecast to gradually weaken to a remnant low on Thu, reaching to near 23N 125W Thu evening as it tracks over the open Pacific through late Fri. Estelle and its post-tropical remnant low should allow for a weakening of the pressure gradient equatorward leading to trade winds becoming light and variable. The large SE swell will gradually diminish over the next couple days. $$ Aguirre