000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192138 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 19.5N 116.9W at 19/2100 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center in the E semicircle and 90 nm W semicircle. Peak seas are near 24 ft. The west-northwest motion should continue for the next couple of days. Weakening is expected and Estelle is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Thursday. Swells generated by Estelle will continue to subside along the west coast of Baja California Sur through this evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 79W north of 04W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 04.5N to 10N between 78W and 88W. A tropical wave is north of 04N along 91/92W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 90W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N104W to 14N110W, and then from 13N118W to 12N130W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection described above in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 07N to 13.5N between 98W and 110W, and from 09N to 16N between 110.5W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 122W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are tranquil across the Mexican zones, except for the far northern Gulf of California, where the latest ASCAT shows fresh southerly winds. Seas are 6-7 ft in the offshore zones, mainly from moderate SW swell, 4-6 ft in the S Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft in the N and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Estelle will move to near 20.9N 120.9W Wed as winds and seas subside in the waters offshore of Baja California and SW Mexico. In the wake of Estelle, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexico on Wed and Thu, locally strong off Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas Wed night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to remain quiescent through Fri. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong over the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... E winds are gentle to moderate north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region. S to SW winds are moderate equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell across most of the area. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse off Papagayo through Wed. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones through Thu. A tropical wave moving into the area could increase winds to fresh well offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua Thu night into Fri. Large S swell occurring over the equatorial zones will gradually diminish through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging extends across the northern part of the area. The moderate pressure gradient from the ridge to the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing generally moderate NE trades from 14N to 30N between 123W and 140W. Seas are 7-8 ft in SE swell south of the the equator between 103W and 120W and 6-7 ft in the remainder of the High Seas waters. Tropical Storm Estelle, centered near 19.5N 116.9W at 19/2100 UTC with max winds of 55 kt, is affecting the waters from 15N to 25N between 110W and 122W. Estelle will gradually weaken to a remnant low on Thu near 22.2N 124.6W. While moving over the open Pacific on Wed through Fri, the system will cause a weakening of the pressure gradient equatorward and diminishing the trades to light and variable. The large SE swell will gradually diminish over the next couple days. $$ Hagen