000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191536
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 19.0N 115.5W at 19/1500 
UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
270 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Peak seas are near 25 
ft. The west-northwest motion should continue for the next couple
of days. Weakening is expected and Estelle is forecast to
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Thursday. 
Swells generated by Estelle will diminish along the coasts
of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
later today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is entering the basin along 78W north of 04W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to
07.5N between 77.5W and 80.5W.

A tropical wave is north of 04N along 90W, moving west around 15
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 12.5N between 87.5W and 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 08N104W to 12N109W, and then from 13N116W to 11N122W to
12N136W. The ITCZ begins at 12N136W and extends to 12N140W. 
Aside from the convection described above in the Tropical Wave 
section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends
from 07N to 14N between 97W and 127W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 82W-87W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on Tropical Storm Estelle.

Outside of Estelle, winds are tranquil across the Mexican
zones. Seas are 5-7 ft in the offshore zones - mainly from 
moderate SW swell, 4-6 in the S Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft 
in the N and central Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Estelle will move to near 20.5N
119.6W Wed morning as winds and seas subside in the waters 
offshore of Baja California and SW Mexico. In the wake of 
Estelle, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will develop off the 
Baja California peninsula and SW Mexico on Wed and Thu. 
Elsewhere, winds and seas are quiescent through the end of the 
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

E winds are gentle to moderate north of the monsoon trough and
S to SW winds are moderate to gentle equatorward of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell across most of the area.

For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil across the 
Central American and equatorial offshore zones through the end of
the week. Large S swell occurring over the equatorial zones will
gradually diminish through Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad surface ridging extends across the northern part of the
area. The moderate pressure gradient from the ridge to the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing generally moderate NE trades. 
Seas are 7-8 ft in SE swell south of the the equator east of 
120W and 6-7 ft in the remainder of the High Seas waters.

For the forecast, Estelle will enter the High Seas waters west 
of Baja California tomorrow and gradually weaken while continuing 
toward the west-northwest. While moving over the open Pacific on
Wed through Fri, the system will cause a weakening of the 
pressure gradient equatorward and diminishing the trades to light
and variable. The large SE swell will gradually diminish over 
the next couple days.

$$
Hagen