127 AXPZ20 KNHC 190915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 18.6N 114.7W at 19/0900 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N-20N between 111W-117W. Peak seas are near 25 ft. A slight turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and this general motion should continue through midweek. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, and Estelle is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday. Swells generated by Estelle will continue to affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is north of 06N along 86W, moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is noted with this wave over the Pacific waters. A tropical wave is north of 06N along 95W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-11N between 96W-102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N105W and then from 15N115W to 13N130W. The ITCZ begins at 13N130W and extends to 10N140W. Aside from the convection described above in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection extends from 06N-11N west of 133W and from 10N-15N between 110W-117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are tranquil across the Mexican zones. Seas are 5-7 ft in the offshore zones - mainly from moderate SW swell, 4-6 in the S Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft in the N and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Estelle near 18.6N 114.7W 995 mb at 2 AM PDT moving W at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Estelle will move to 19.1N 116.4W this afternoon after passing over or just north of Clarion Island, and to 19.9N 118.7W Wed morning as winds and seas subside in the waters offshore of Baja California and SW Mexico. In the wake of Estelle, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexico on Wed and Thu. Elsewhere, winds and seas are quiescent through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... E winds are gentle to moderate north of the monsoon trough and S to SW winds are moderate to gentle equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-8 ft in S swell over the equatorial zones and 5-6 ft over the Central American zones. For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones through the end of the week. Large S swell occurring over the equatorial zones will gradually diminish through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends from 30N122W southeastward to 25N115W. The moderate pressure gradient from the ridge to the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing generally gentle to moderate NE trades. Seas are 8-9 ft in SE swell south of the the equator east of 120W and 6-7 ft in the remainder of the High Seas waters. For the forecast, Estelle will enter the High Seas waters west of Baja California tomorrow, while gradually weakening while continuing toward the west-northwest. While moving over the open Pacific on Wed through Fri, the system will cause a weakening of the pressure gradient equatorward and diminishing the trades to light and variable. The large SE swell will gradually diminish over the next couple days. $$ Landsea