000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Estelle is centered near 18.3N 113.6W at 19/0300 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 15N-19N between 110W-116W. Peak seas are near 27 ft. This west- northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or two followed by more pronounced weakening, and Estelle is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone towards the end of the week. Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for the next day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is north of 04N along 85W, moving west around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is noted with this wave over the Pacific waters. A tropical wave is north of 06N along 95W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-11N between 96W-100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N106W and then from 15N116W to 13N130W. The ITCZ begins at 13N130W and extends to 10N140W. Aside from the convection described above in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection extends from 07N-11N west of 129W and from 11N-15N between 110W-118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are tranquil across the Mexican zones. Seas are 5-7 ft in the offshore zones - mainly from moderate SW swell, 4-6 in the S Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft in the N and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, Estelle will weaken to a tropical storm near 18.7N 115.3W Tue morning as it passes over or just north of Clarion Island, move to 19.4N 117.5W Tue evening, and to 20.3N 119.8W Wed morning as winds and seas subside over the waters offshore of Baja California and SW Mexico. In Estelle's wake, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexico on Wed and Thu. Elsewhere, winds and seas are quiescent through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... E winds are gentle to moderate north of the monsoon trough and moderate to gentle S to SW winds equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-8 ft in S swell over the equatorial zones and 5-6 ft over the Central American zones. For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones through the end of the week. Large S swell occurring over the equatorial zones will gradually diminish through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends from 30N125W southeastward to 25N115W. The moderate pressure gradient from the ridge to the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing generally gentle to moderate NE trades. Seas are 8-9 ft in SE swell south of the the equator east of 120W and 6-7 ft in the remainder of the High Seas waters. For the forecast, Estelle will enter the High Seas waters west of Baja California tomorrow, while gradually weakening while continuing toward the west-northwest. While moving over the open Pacific on Wed through Fri, the system will cause a weakening of the pressure gradient equatorward and diminishing the trades to light and variable. The large SE swell will gradually diminish over the next couple days. $$ Landsea