000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jul 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Estelle is centered near 18.0N 111.1W at 18/1500 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 107W and 114W. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Estelle will continue to move towards the west-northwest the next few days. The center of Estelle is forecast to move just north of Clarion Island tonight. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but weakening is expected to begin around the middle of the week. Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is north of 04N along 82W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active in the Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. A tropical wave is north of 06N along 90W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the Guatemala and Chiapas, Mexico offshore waters. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N96W to 10N102W and then from 14N114W to 11N123W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate convection from 05N to 12N between 96W and 107W, from 09N to 14N between 116W and 135W, and from 08N to 12N W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are light to gentle across the Baja California offshores with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally SE winds are noted across the northern Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Hurricane Estelle across portions of the SW Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds will prevail off Baja California Norte and the southernmost SW Mexican offshore waters through the middle of the week. Swell in excess of 8 ft will persist in the waters off Baja California Sur beyond 90 nm through midweek, then will subside. Afterwards, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexico, continuing through Fri. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo and the rest of Nicaragua offshore waters. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds are mostly moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Central American offshores and 6-9 ft over the equatorial zones. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is across the Gulf of Panama, offshore Colombia and Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua through midweek. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. S to SW swell up to 8 or 9 ft will persist off southern Central America, Colombia and Ecuador into midweek, then will subside. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward across the open forecast waters north of the monsoon/ITCZ, supporting mostly moderate winds outside of immediate area of Estelle. NW swell to 8 ft persists from 12N to 22N west of 130W, north of 26N between 120W and 130W. Southerly swell to 9 ft continues south of 08N, east of 130W. For the forecast, the NE trades and the S to SW monsoonal flow will change little over the next few days. Hurricane Estelle will be moving over the high seas waters west of Clarion Island on tonight and into Tue. The system should likely continue being a significant weather maker through at least midweek. Otherwise, the large S to SW swell will continue progressing northeastward through tonight and will subside Tue. $$ Ramos