000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180943 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jul 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Estelle is centered near 17.5N 109.8W at 18/0900 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from within 90 nm of the center of Estelle. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Estelle will continue to move towards the west-northwest. The center of Estelle is forecast to move south of Socorro Island this morning, and just north of Clarion Island tonight. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current conditions along the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is north of 04N along 80W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active in the Gulf of Panama. A tropical wave is north of 06N along 88W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is active with this tropical wave. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 15N along 138W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N west of 139W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to 10N101, and then from 15N112W to 11N135W. The ITCZ is west of 140W. Aside from the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate convection from 10N to 12N between 103W and 106W, and from 10N to 12N between 120W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Estelle. Outside of Estelle, winds are light to gentle across the Baja California offshores with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally SE winds are noted across the northern Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Hurricane Estelle across portions of the SW Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds will prevail off Baja California Norte and the southernmost SW Mexican offshore waters through the middle of the week. Swell in excess of 8 ft will persist in the waters off Baja California Sur beyond 90 nm through midweek, then will subside. Afterwards, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexico, continuing through Fri. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo and the rest of Nicaragua offshore waters. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds are mostly moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Central American offshores and 6-9 ft over the equatorial zones. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is across the Gulf of Panama, offshore Colombia and Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua through midweek. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. S to SW swell up to 8 or 9 ft will persist off southern Central America, Colombia and Ecuador into midweek, then will subside. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward across the open forecast waters north of the monsoon/ITCZ, supporting mostly moderate winds outside of immediate area of Estelle. NW swell to 8 ft persists from 12N to 22N west of 130W, north of 26N between 120W and 130W. Southerly swell to 9 ft continues south of 08N, east of 130W. For the forecast, the NE trades and the S to SW monsoonal flow will change little over the next few days. Hurricane Estelle will be moving over the high seas waters west of Clarion Island on tonight and into Tue. The system should likely continue being a significant weather maker through at least midweek. Otherwise, the large S to SW swell will continue progressing northeastward through tonight and will subside Tue. $$ Christensen