000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180400 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Estelle is centered near 16.8N 108.6W at 18/0300 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from within 90 nm of the center of Estelle. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Estelle will continue to move towards the west-northwest and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Seas will continue building over the next few days and reach near 30 ft tonight into Mon morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 86W north of 85W. No significant convection is evident with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to 10N97W, and then from 14N130W to 11N135W. The ITCZ extends from 10N138W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderated convection from 08N to 10N west of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Estelle a couple hundred nm SW of Jalisco, Mexico. Outside of Estelle, winds are light to gentle across the Baja California offshores with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally SE winds are noted across the northern Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Hurricane Estelle across portions of the SW Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds will prevail off Baja California Norte and the southernmost SW Mexican offshore waters through the middle of the week. Afterwards, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexico, continuing through Fri. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo and the rest of Nicaragua offshore waters. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds are mostly moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Central American offshores and 6-9 ft over the equatorial zones. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is across the Gulf of Panama, offshore Colombia and Costa Rica. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua through midweek. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. Large S to SW swell with 8-9 ft seas will continue to push north over the next few days. The swell is expected to subside by Tue morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward across the open forecast waters N of the monsoon/ITCZ. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 10N to 27N W of 120W and being modulated by the passage of a tropical wave. Seas within this region range between 5-8 ft. Northerly swell is noted N of 27N between the Baja California Norte offshore waters boundary to 127W. Seas are 7-8 ft. South of the monsoon trough, winds are moderate to fresh out of the S to SW. Seas are 7-10 ft with some S to SW swell being the primarily contributor. For the forecast, the NE trades and the S to SW monsoonal flow will change little over the next few days. Hurricane Estelle will be moving over the high seas waters west of Clarion Island on Mon night and into Tue. The system should likely continue being a significant weather maker through at least midweek. Otherwise, the large S to SW swell will continue progressing northeastward tonight into Mon and will subside by Tue. $$ Christensen/Ramos