000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Estelle is centered near 15.7N 107.1W at 17/1500 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 103W and 111W. Peak seas are near 21 ft. Estelle will continue to move towards the west-northwest and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Estelle could become a major hurricane on Monday. Seas will continue building over the next few days and reach near 30 ft by tonight and into Mon morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N with axis near 135W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 11N97W and then from 13N111W to 12N125W to 10N132W. The ITCZ extends from 10N132W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderated convection is N of 03N E of 83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 111W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Estelle a couple hundred nm SW of Colima, Mexico. Outside of Estelle, winds are light to gentle across the Baja California offshores with seas 4-6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted across the Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Hurricane Estelle, light to gentle winds will prevail off Baja California Norte and the SW Mexican offshore waters through the middle of the week. Afterwards, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will develop off the Baja peninsula and SW Mexico, continuing through Fri. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo and the rest of Nicaragua offshore waters. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds are mostly moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Central American offshores and 6-9 ft over the equatorial zones. Otherwise, numerous moderate convection is moving across the Gulf of Panama and offshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua through midweek. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. Large S to SW swell with 8-9 ft seas will continue to push north over the next few days. The swell is expected to subside by Tue morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward across the open forecast waters N of the monsoon/ITCZ. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 10N to 27N W of 120W and being modulated by the passage of a tropical wave Seas within this region range 5-8 ft. Northerly swell is noted N of 27N between the Baja California Norte offshore waters boundary to 127W. Seas are 7-8 ft. South of the monsoon trough, winds are moderate to fresh out of the S to SW. Seas are 7-10 ft with some S to SW swell being the primarily contributor. For the forecast, the NE trades and the S to SW monsoonal flow will change little over the next few days. Hurricane Estelle will be moving over the high seas waters west of Clarion Island on Mon night and into Tue. The system should likely continue being a significant weather maker through at least midweek. Otherwise, the large S to SW swell will continue progressing northeastward through the Sun into Mon and will subside by Tue. $$ Ramos