000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170949 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Estelle is centered near 15.1N 105.9W at 17/0900 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 103W and 109W. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Estelle will continue moving toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed during the next few days. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Estelle could become a major hurricane on Monday. Seas will continue building over the next few days and reach near 30 ft by tonight and into Mon morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 02N to 17N with axis near 121W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 118W and 122W. A tropical wave extends from 01N to 17N with axis near 134W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 132W and 136W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 11N94W and then from 13N111W to 11N130W. The ITCZ extends from 11N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 111W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Estelle a couple hundred NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Outside of Estelle, winds are light to gentle across the Baja California offshores with seas 4-6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted across the Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. Fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted with 4-6 ft seas. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring across Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Hurricane Estelle, fresh northerly winds will prevail through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of California and around Cabo Corrientes by midweek. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshores through midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo and the rest of Nicaragua offshore waters. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds are mostly moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Central American offshores and 6-9 ft over the equatorial zones. Numerous scattered to isolated strong convection is moving across the Gulf of Panama and offshore Colombia from 03N to 09N between 77W and 81W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua through midweek. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. Large S to SW swell with 8-9 ft seas will continue to push north over the next few days. The swell is expected to subside by Tue morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward across the open forecast waters N of the monsoon/ITCZ. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 10N to 27N W of 120W and being modulated by the passage of two tropical waves. Seas within this region range 5-7 ft. NE swell with seas 8-9 ft are noted from 12N to 21N and W of 135W. Northerly swell is noted N of 28N between the Baja California Norte offshore waters boundary to 127W. Seas are 7-8 ft. South of the monsoon trough, winds are moderate to fresh out of the S to SW. Seas are 7-10 ft with some S to SW swell being the primarily contributor. For the forecast, the NE trades and the S to SW monsoonal flow will change little over the next few days. Hurricane Estelle will be moving over the high seas waters west of Clarion Island on Mon night and into Tue. The system should likely continue being a significant weather maker through at least midweek. Otherwise, the large S to SW swell will continue progressing northeastward through the Sun into Mon and will subside by Tue. $$ AReinhart