000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 14.2N 104.4W at 16/2100 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 98W and 110W. Peak seas are 20 ft. Estelle will continue moving in the west-northwest direction during the next several days. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Estelle is expected to become a hurricane by this evening and could become a major hurricane by early Monday. Seas are also expected to continue building through the weekend and into early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 02N to 18N with axis near 117W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 113W and 121W. A tropical wave extends from 02N to 18N with axis near 130W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between 122W and 134W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N110W to 10N127W to 09N132W. The ITCZ extends from 09N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 94W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 03N E of 87W, and from 07N to 11N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle a couple hundred NM southwest of Guerrero, Mexico. Away from the tropical storm, winds are gentle to locally moderate across the Mexican offshore and Gulf of California waters. Seas are 5-7 ft near the extreme northwestern Baja California Norte offshore waters. Seas continue to be 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. In the Chiapas and Oaxaca offshore waters, winds are moderate to fresh from the E to SE, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where fresh northerly winds are noted with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Tropical Storm Estelle, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight, with moderate to fresh northerly winds prevailing through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshores through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo and rest of Nicaragua offshore waters. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds are moderate to fresh. Seas are 5-6 ft over the Central American offshores and 5-8 ft over the equatorial zones. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua for the next few days. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. Large S to SW swell will continue to push north and build 9 ft by tonight. The swell is expected to subside by Tue morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward across the open forecast waters N of the monsoon/ITCZ. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 10N to 27N W of 120W being modulated by the passage of two tropical waves. Seas within this region are in the range of 5 to 7 ft. Northerly swell is noted N of 25N between the Baja California Norte offshore waters boundary to 127W. Seas are 7 to 8 ft. South of the monsoon trough, winds are moderate to fresh out of the S to SW. Seas are 7-10 ft with some S to SW swell being the primarily contributor. For the forecast, the NE trades and the S to SW monsoonal flow will change little over the next few days. Tropical Storm Estelle, expected to be of hurricane intensity tonight, will be moving over the high seas waters west of Clarion Island on Tue. The system should likely continue being a significant weather maker through at least the middle of next week. Otherwise, the large S to SW swell will continue progressing northeastward through the weekend and will subside by Tue. $$ Ramos