000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 13.6N 103.1W at 16/0900 UTC and is moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 102W and 106W. Peak seas are 12 ft and extending 60 nm in the NE quadrant. Estelle will continue moving in the west-northwest direction during the next several days. Continued strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. Seas are also expected to continue building through the weekend and into early next week, reaching over 20 ft tonight and near 30 ft by Sun night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 114W and from 04N to 18N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this time. A tropical wave extends along 128W from 04N to 17N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 126W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 12N98W and then resumes from 12N107W to 11N123W to 09N131W. The ITCZ extends from 09N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 94W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 106W and 126W and from 06N to 09N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle a couple hundred NM south- southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Away from the tropical depression, winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshore and Gulf of California waters. Seas are up to 8 ft near the extreme northwestern Baja California Norte offshore waters. Seas continue to be 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. The southwestern Mexican offshores have light to gentle winds with 4-5 ft seas. Scattered showers are moving into the central Gulf of California off the Sonora coast. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Tropical Storm Estelle, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Sat night, with moderate to fresh northerly winds prevailing through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshores through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds are moderate to fresh. Seas are 5-7 ft over the Central American offshores and 5-8 ft over the equatorial zones. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua for the next few days. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. Large S to SW swell will continue to push north and build 9 ft by tonight. The swell is expected to subside by Tue morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak ridging extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high near 38N159W to 20N120W. NE trades north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft seas. Northerly swell with seas to 8 ft are observed N of 29N between 120W and 125W. South of the monsoon trough, winds are moderate to fresh out of the S to SW. Seas are 7-10 ft with some S to SW swell being the primarily contributor. For the forecast, the NE trades and the S to SW monsoonal flow will change little over the next few days. By Tue night, Tropical Storm Estelle, expected to be of hurricane intensity at that point, will be moving over the high seas waters west of Clarion Island. The system should likely continue being a significant weather maker through at least the middle of next week. The large S to SW swell will continue progressing northeastward through the weekend and will subside by Tue. $$ AReinhart