000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160402 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Estelle is centered near 13.2N 102.0W at 16/0300 UTC and is moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 101W and 106W. est. Estelle is expected to make a turn toward the west- northwest by Saturday morning, with that heading at a similar forward speed continuing through late Monday. Estelle is forecast to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Estelle could become a hurricane by Saturday night. Seas are estimated to build over 30 ft by Mon morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 112W and from 04N to 18N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this time. A tropical wave extends along 127W from 04N to 17N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 126W and 129W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to T.S. Estelle near 13N102W to 09N118W to 09N133W. The ITCZ extends from 09N133W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 95W and 130W and from 06N to 10N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Estelle a couple hundred NM south- southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Away from the tropical depression, winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshore and Gulf of California waters. Seas are 5-6 ft over the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. The southwestern Mexican offshores are light to gentle with 4-5 ft seas. Scattered showers are moving into the central Gulf of California off the Sonora coast. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Tropical Storm Estelle, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of California tonight and Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will also pulse off the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Sat night, with moderate to fresh northerly winds prevailing through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshores. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, winds are moderate or weaker. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds are moderate to fresh. Seas are 5-6 ft over the Central American offshores and 5-7 ft over the equatorial zones. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua for the next few days. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. Large S to SW swell should continue impacting the equatorial zones before subsiding by Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak ridging extends southeastward from a 1031 mb high near 38N160W to 20N115W. NE trades north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough are moderate to fresh. Seas are 6-7 ft. South of the monsoon trough, winds are moderate to fresh out of the S to SW. Seas are 7-9 ft with some S to SW swell being the primarily contributor. For the forecast, the NE trades and the S to SW monsoonal flow will change little over the next few days. By Tue night, Tropical Storm Estelle, expected to be of hurricane intensity at that point, will be moving over the high seas waters west of Clarion Island. The system should likely continue being a significant weather maker through at least the middle of next week. The large S to SW swell will continue progressing northeastward while diminishing to below 8 ft by Tue night. $$ AReinhart