000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152139 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Six-E is centered near 13.0N 100.9W at 15/2100 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Numerous moderate and scatted strong convection is noted from 10N-16N between 95W- 105W. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, and this motion should continue into early next week as the system moves roughly parallel to but well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane later this weekend. Seas are forecast to reach near 25 ft by Sun afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 111W and from 04N to 17N, moving west around 15 kt. No signification convection is noted with this feature at this time. A tropical wave extends along 126W from 04N to 16N with a 1012 mb low at 11N126W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-14N between 123W-131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to Tropical Depression Six-E near 13N101W to 10N132W. The ITCZ extends from 10N132W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection noted above from the tropical depression and and the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N- 10N between 136W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Six-E a couple hundred NM south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Away from the tropical depression, winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshore and Gulf of California waters. Seas are 5-6 ft over the Mexican offshores and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Tropical Depression Six-E, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshores. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds were observed by scatterometer over the Gulf of Papagayo region at 15-16 UTC. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, winds are moderate or weaker. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds are moderate to fresh. Seas are 5-6 ft over the Central American offshores and 6-8 ft over the equatorial zones. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua for the next few days. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. Large S to SW swell should continue impacting the equatorial zones before receding on Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak ridging extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high at 34N136W to 20N110W. NE trades north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough are moderate to fresh. Seas are 6-7 ft. South of the monsoon trough, winds are moderate to fresh out of the S to SW. Seas are 7-8 ft with some S to SW swell being the primarily contributor. For the forecast, the NE trades and the S to SW monsoonal flow will change little over the next few days. By Tue night, Tropical Depression Six-E - which should be of hurricane intensity at that point - will be moving over the high seas waters west of Clarion Island. The system should likely continue being a significant weather maker through at least the middle of next week. The large S to SW swell will continue progressing northeastward while diminishing to below 8 ft by Tue night. $$ Landsea