000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Six-E is centered near 12.0N 100.8W at 15/1500 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Numerous moderate and scatted strong convection is noted from 12N-15N betwen 97W-104W. This general WNW motion is expected to continue for the next few days while the system remains well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system could become a hurricane by late this weekend or early next week. Seas are forecast to reach near 20 ft by Sun morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 96W N of 03N through southern Mexico, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-12N between 92W-98W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 110W and from 04N to 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No signification convection is noted with this feature at this time. A tropical wave extends along 125W from 04N to 16N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-13N between 122W-130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to Tropical Depression Six-E near 12N101W to 10N132W. The ITCZ extends from 10N132W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection noted above from the tropical depression and and the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-11N between 130W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Six-E several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Away from the tropical depression, gentle to moderate northerly winds continue across the Baja California offshore waters with seas 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. Seas across the Gulf of California are up to 3 ft and 4-6 ft across the southwest Mexico offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the coast of Nayarit and southern Sinaloa. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Six-E near 12.0N 100.8W 1007 mb at 8 AM PDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Six-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.7N 101.9W this evening, move to 13.6N 103.5W Sat morning, 14.4N 104.9W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N 106.6W Sun morning, 15.9N 108.2W Sun evening, and 16.7N 110.2W Mon morning. Six-E will change little in intensity as it moves to the 18.0N 115.0W early Tue. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshores. Northwesterly swell will reach the extreme northern Baja California offshore waters with seas to 7-8 ft late today and into tonight and continue through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds are noted off the coasts of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua in associated with the low pressure south of Acapulco. Seas are 5-7 ft across these offshore waters. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW winds are noted with SW swell ranging 5-7 ft. Seas are near 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, at 1500 UTC Tropical Depression Six-E has formed south of SE Mexico. While no direct effects from wind will occur in the Central American zones, large S to SW swell will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador waters today before diminishing Sat. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua for the next few days. Elsewhere, winds will be tranquil through at least early next week. Large S to SW swell will impact the equatorial zones through Mon night before receding on Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. This is resulting in gentle to moderate NE trades N of 10N with seas 5-7 ft. Seas near 18N134W are up to 8 ft as a result of Darby. Northerly swell with seas to 8 ft are noted W of the Baja California offshore waters, N of 29N between 122W and 128W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to the SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, southerly swell will continue moving north across the southern forecast waters through the weekend. Seas will build 8-10 ft and reach as far north as 12N later in the weekend and into early next week. Swell is expected to return to the far western waters from 13N to 22N and W of 135W by Sat night and subside by Mon. Farther north, northerly swell with seas to 8 ft will linger N of 28N between 120W and 130W through early next week. $$ Landsea/Reinhart