000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150951 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A 1009 mb low pressure is located several hundred miles south Acapulco, Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 98W and 105W and seas 8-9 ft. This area of convection continues to gradually become better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico later today or tonight while moving toward the west- northwest at about 10 kt. If this system develops, gale conditions or higher will be possible in addition to building seas. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 94W N of 03N through southern Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 92W and 95W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 108W and from 03N to 17N, moving west 10 kt. No signification convection is noted with this feature at this time. A tropical wave extends along 123W from 03N to 16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 14N between 121W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to a 1009 mb low near 11N100W to 10N114W to 10N125W. The ITCZ extends from 10N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 89W and 108W and from 06N to 14N between 119W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the gale warning associated with the developing low pressure center several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the Oaxaca offshore waters associated with the developing low pressure. Seas in this area are 8-9 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate northerly winds continue across the Baja California offshore waters with seas 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. Seas across the Gulf of California are up to 3 ft and 4-6 ft across the southwest Mexico offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the coast of Nayarit and southern Sinaloa. For the forecast, a gale warning is in effect for the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Michoacan from Fri night through Sat night. This is related to the developing low well south of Acapulco, Mexico. There is a high chance this low will develop into a tropical depression over the next few days. If this happens, gale conditions or higher are possible with building seas. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshores. Northwesterly swell will reach the extreme northern Baja California offshore waters with seas to 7-8 ft late today and into tonight and continue through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds are noted off the coasts of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua in associated with the low pressure south of Acapulco. Seas are 5-7 ft across these offshore waters. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW winds are noted with SW swell ranging 5-7 ft. Seas are near 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, winds and seas will improve across the northern Central America offshore waters as the low pressure developing along the monsoon trough moves farther west. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua Fri night and Sat night. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh winds will persist across the South American offshore waters. Seas will build to 8-9 ft as SW swell moves northward across the Galapagos Islands and the Ecuador offshore waters through this weekend and into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. This is resulting in gentle to moderate NE trades N of 10N with seas 5-7 ft. Seas near 18N134W are up to 8 ft as a result of Darby. Northerly swell with seas to 8 ft are noted W of the Baja California offshore waters, N of 29N between 122W and 128W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to the SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, southerly swell will continue moving north across the southern forecast waters through the weekend. Seas will build 8-10 ft and reach as far north as 12N later in the weekend and into early next week. Swell is expected to return to the far western waters from 13N to 22N and W of 135W by Sat night and subside by Mon. Farther north, northerly swell with seas to 8 ft will linger N of 28N between 120W and 130W through early next week. $$ AReinhart