000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A 1009 mb low pressure is located several hundred miles south Acapulco, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 97W and 101W and has continued to become better organized today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico within the next day or so. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 92W N of 03N though eastern Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 91W and 95W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 107W and from 03N to 17N, moving west 10 to 15 kt. No signification convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave extends along 121W from 03N to 16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 14N between 120W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to a 1009 mb low near 11N99W to 10N113W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 78W and 91W and from 06N to 14N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the gale warning associated with the developing low pressure center several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Oaxaca offshore waters associated with the developing low pressure with seas 6-8 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted off the Baja California offshore waters with seas 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. Seas across the Gulf of California range 1-3 ft and 4-6 ft across southwest Mexico offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection persists off the Cabo Corrientes coast. For the forecast, a gale warning is in effect for the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Michoacan from Fri night through Sat night. This is related to the developing low well south of Acapulco, Mexico. There is a high chance this low will develop into a tropical depression over the next few days. If this happens, gale conditions or higher are possible with building seas. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshores. Across the Baja California Norte offshores, expect NW swell to 9 ft to reach these waters Fri morning and continue into Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador as low pressure continues to deepen and becomes more organized along the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW winds along with SW swell ranging 5-7 ft cover the waters from Nicaragua to Colombia. Father south, swell is as high as 8 ft off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to increase tonight off northern Central America, north of the low pressure developing along the monsoon trough. The locally strong winds and rough seas will diminish through Fri as the low pressure moves NW. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua starting Fri night. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh winds will persist, with 8-9 ft SW swell moving across the area by the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Hurricane Darby continues moving W away from our area. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas 8-9 ft are noted W of 138W from 15N- 20N. Elsewhere, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with Darby near 140W will continue to improve overnight as the system moves farther away from the area. Southerly swell of 8 to 11 ft will move across the equator and reach as far north as 10N W of 100W by Sat. $$ AReinhart