000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142130 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles SE of Acapulco, Mexico continue to organize. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails from 09N-15N between 95W-102W, and seas in the area range between 7-9 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by late Friday or Saturday. The disturbance is forecast to move WNW at about 10 kt while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. The system has a high chance for tropical formation within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis N of 02N along 91W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers prevail S of 13N between 88W- 95W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 105W and N of 02N, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave extends along 120W from 03N to 16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 11N99W to 08N118W. ITCZ is analyzed from 08N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-15N and E of 108W, and from 07N-15N between 118W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the developing low pressure center several hundred miles SE of Acapulco, Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure is supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is evident off Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, seas will continue building off the Gulf of Tehuantepec as the Special Features low becomes stronger and moves NW across the Mexican offshore waters. Farther north, NW swell to 9 ft may reach the waters off Baja California Norte beginning on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds and seas continue to increase off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador as low pressure deepens and becomes more organized along the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW winds along with SW swell to 7 ft cover the waters from Nicaragua to Colombia. Father south, swell is as high as 8 ft off Ecuador. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to increase through tonight off northern Central America, north of the low pressure developing along the monsoon trough. The occasionally strong wind and rough seas will diminish through late Fri into early Sat as the low pressure moves NW. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua starting Fri. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds will persist, accompanied by SW swell ranging between 8-9 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Hurricane Darby continues moving W away from our area. Fresh winds and seas to 11 ft are noted W of 138W from 15N-20N. Elsewhere, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 15N-20N west of 138W tonight as the system continues moving away from the area. Southerly swell of 8 to 11 ft will move across the equator and reach as far north as 08N W of 100W by Sat. $$ ERA