000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141610 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail within 60 nm of a 1010 mb low pressure area centered near 11N98W, about 300 nm SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This system is becoming more organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by late Friday or Sat. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 kt while remaining off the coast of southern Mexico. The system has a high chance for tropical formation within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis N of 03N along 91W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 13N between 88W-94W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 103W and N of 02N, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 12N between 101W and 107W. A tropical wave extends along 117W from 01N to 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N98W to 10N113W. The convection is described with the low and tropical waves in the sections above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the developing low pressure center a few hundred miles SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure is supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is evident off Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, seas will build off the Gulf of Tehuantepec today related to developing low pressure farther south. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of the low pressure, and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by Fri or Sat, between Guerrero and Jalisco. Farther north, NW swell to 9 ft may reach the waters off Baja California Norte early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds and seas are increasing off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador as elongated low pressure deepens and becomes more organized a little farther south along the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW winds along with SW swell to 7 ft cover the waters from Nicaragua to Colombia. Father south, this swell is as high as 8 ft off Ecuador. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to increase today off northern Central America, north of the low pressure developing along the monsoon trough. The occasionally strong wind and rough seas will diminish through late Fri into early Sat as the low pressure moves farther north. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua starting Fri. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds will persist, but will be accompanied by SW swell reaching 7 to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the section above for details on Hurricane Darby. Outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 135W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 10N-20N west of 135W today as the system continues moving away from the area. Looking ahead, southerly swell of 8 to 10 ft will move across the equator and reach as far north as 08N W of 100W by late Sat. $$ ERA