000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 16.2N 139.5W at 14/0900 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Peak seas at this time are estimated to reach 29 ft. While Darby has been able to maintain strength over the pas 24 hours, it will be encountering a less favorable environment over the next 24 to 36 hours as it continues to move west, allowing Darby to weaken to a tropical storm by early Fri. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm of a 1010 mb low pressure area centered near 10N97W, about 360 nm south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This system is becoming more organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by late Friday or Sat. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at about 10 kt while remaining off the coast of southern Mexico. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis north of 03N along 89W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident within 90 nm off the coast of Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. A tropical wave has been repositioned westward to 101W, north of 02N, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 12N between 98W and 100W. A tropical wave extends along 115W from 02N to 15N, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N97W to 10N110W. No significant convection is evident other than what is described above in the tropical waves section. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the developing low pressure center a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure is supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is evident off Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, seas will build off the Gulf of Tehuantepec today related to developing low pressure farther south. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of the low pressure, and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by Fri or Sat, between Guerrero and Jalisco. Farther north, NW swell to 9 ft may reach the waters off Baja California Norte early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds and seas are increasing off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador as elongated low pressure deepens and becomes more organized a little farther south along the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW winds along with SW swell to 7 ft cover the waters from Nicaragua to Colombia. Father south, this swell is as high as 8 ft off Ecuador. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to increase today off northern Central America, north of the low pressure developing along the monsoon trough. The occasionally strong wind and rough seas will diminish through late Fri into early Sat as the low pressure moves farther north. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua starting Fri. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds will persist, but will be accompanied by SW swell reaching 7 to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the section above for details on Hurricane Darby. Outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 135W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 10N-20N west of 135W through Thu, when the system moves west of 140W. Looking ahead, southerly swell of 8 to 10 ft will move across the equator and reach as far north as 08N west of 100W by late Sat. $$ Christensen