000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 15.4N 136.7W at 13/2100 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 110 nm of the center. Peak seas at this time are estimated to reach 26 ft. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight. Darby is forecast to resume weakening by late tonight or on Thursday. The system will likely become a tropical storm by Thursday night and become post-tropical by Friday night. Darby is forecast to then continue westward through the end of the week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a medium chance for tropical development is expected with this system by Friday or Saturday. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two, then move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt through the weekend while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis N of 04N along 85W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted with 120 nm on either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends its axis N of 02N along 97W, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 13N between 92W and 100W. A tropical wave extends along 113W from 01N to 16N, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N95W to 09N113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N and E of 100W. Scattered showers prevail within 180 nm S of the boundary between 100W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the developing low pressure center a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure is supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is evident off the Guerrero coast. For the forecast, moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist over Mexican offshore waters through Thu. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by Friday or Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Low pressure is getting more organized along the monsoon trough. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms have been active over the past several hours across the outer offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala due to a tropical wave in the vicinity. Moderate to fresh NE winds have developed N of the low, while fresh SW winds prevail S of the low. Shorter period swell from these winds are joined by longer period southerly swell to support areas of 6 to 8 ft seas in the waters off western Panama and Costa Rica, south of the monsoon trough, along roughly 10N. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the low off El Salvador over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or so, then move west-northwestward at 10 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. This system could potentially allow rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Thu through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the section above for details on Hurricane Darby. Outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 10N-20N west of 130W through Thu, when the system moves west of 140W. Looking ahead, southerly swell of 8 to 10 ft will move across the equator and reach as far north as 08N west of 100W by late Sat. $$ ERA