947 AXPZ20 KNHC 131518 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 15.0N 135.4W at 13/1500 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. Peak seas at this time are estimated to reach 28 ft. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible today. Darby is forecast to resume weakening by tonight. The system will likely become a tropical storm on Thursday and become post- tropical on Friday. Darby is forecast to continue westward at a slightly slower forward speed through the end of the week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis N of 05N along 83W through Panama moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted with 60 nm on either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends its axis N of 06N along 97W, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N between 94W and 96W. A tropical wave extends along 112W from 01N to 16N, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N93W to 09N110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N and E of 103W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Modest high pressure is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is evident off the Guerrero coast. For the forecast, moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist over Mexican offshore waters through today. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure has developed about 240 nm southwest of El Salvador, and continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or so, then move west-northwestward at 10 kt later this week while remaining off the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low, but there is a high chance of formation through the next five days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Low pressure is getting more organized about 300 nm southwest of the coast of El Salvador, along the monsoon trough. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms have been active over the past several hours across the outer offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. Moderate to fresh NE winds have developed N of the low, while fresh SW winds prevail S of the low. Shorter period swell from these winds are joined by longer period southerly swell to support areas of 6 to 8 ft seas in the waters off western Panama and Costa Rica, south of the monsoon trough, along roughly 10N. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the low off El Salvador over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or so, then move west-northwestward at 10 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. This system could potentially allow rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Thu through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the section above for details on Hurricane Darby. Outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 10N-20N west of 130W through Thu, when the system moves west of 140W. Looking ahead, southerly swell of 8 to 10 ft will move across the equator and reach as far north as 08N west of 100W by late Sat. $$ ERA