000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 14.7N 133.9W at 13/0900 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Darby is weakening as it moves westward into slightly cooler water, and looks less organized then before. Seas are still reaching as high as 30 ft near the center of the hurricane. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. Darby will gradually weaken over the next couple of days as it continues west then west- northwest, diminishing to tropical storm strength Thu as it moves west of 140W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 05N along 82W through Panama moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave. A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 96W extending north through through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N between 94W and 96W. A tropical wave extends along 111W/112W from 02N to 16N, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N91W to 09N105W. The ITCZ extends from 10N112W to 10N120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 88W and 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Modest high pressure is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is evident off the Guerrero coast. For the forecast, mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist over Mexican offshore waters through mid- week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure has developed about 240 nm southwest of El Salvador, and continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or so, then move west- northwestward at 10 kt later this week while remaining off the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low, but there is a high chance of formation through the next five days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Weak low pressure is slowly getting more organized about 240 nm southwest of the coast of El Salvador, along the monsoon trough. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms have been active over the past several hours across the outer offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala, but this activity has temporarily diminished. Fresh SW winds are noted south of the low pressure, but so far these winds remain beyond 240 nm off the coast. Shorter period swell from these winds are joined by longer period southerly swell to support areas of 6 to 7 ft seas in the waters off western Panama and Costa Rica, south of the monsoon trough, along roughly 10N. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the low off El Salvador over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or so, then move west- northwestward at 10 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. This system could potentially allow rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Thu through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Hurricane Darby in the Special Features above. Outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-25N west of 125W through Thu, when the system moves west of 140W. Looking ahead, southerly swell of 8 to 10 ft will move across the equator and reach as far north as 08N west of 100W by late Sat. $$ Christensen