000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130342 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 14.6N 132.7W at 13/0300 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Seas are still reaching as high as 31 ft near the center of the hurricane. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. Darby will gradually weaken over the next couple of days as it continues west then west- northwest, diminishing to tropical storm strength Thu as it moves west of 140W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 80WE through Panama moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave has been enhancing daytime convection over the isthmus. A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 95W extending north through through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. A tropical wave extends along 110W/111W from 06N to 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 10N between 106W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N91W to 09N108W. The ITCZ extends from 11N110W to 11N120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 78W and 115W and from 05N to 10N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Relatively low pressure analyzed over Mexico and ridging over the Pacific continues to support moderate to fresh winds across the northern Gulf of California. The low pressure is weakening, however, and allowing the southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California to diminish a bit since the morning. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the fresh winds over the northern Gulf of California will diminish by tonight. Mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters through mid-week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador, and continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression towards the end of this week into the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or so, then move west-northwestward at 10 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low, but there is a high chance of formation through the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Weak low pressure is slowly getting more organized about 240 nm southwest of the coast of El Salvador, along the monsoon trough. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms have been active over the past several hours across the outer offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala, but this activity has temporarily diminished. Fresh SW winds are noted south of the low pressure, but so far these winds remain beyond 240 nm off the coast. Shorter period swell from these winds are joined by longer period southerly swell to support areas of 6 to 7 ft seas in the waters off western Panama and Costa Rica, south of the monsoon trough, along roughly 10N. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the low off El Salvador over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression towards the end of this week into the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or so, then move west- northwestward at 10 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. This system could potentially allow rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Wed night through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Hurricane Darby in the Special Features above. Outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-25N west of 125W through Fri, when the system moves west of 140W. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas is anticipated. $$ Christensen