000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122157 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 14.6N 131.2W at 12/2100 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 100 nm in the western semicircle and 60 nm in the eastern semicircle. Seas are estimated to be around 33 ft just to the northeast of the center. Seas will remain above 12 ft as the center of Darby crosses 140W, with seas dropping below 8 ft by early Fri morning. A westward or west- northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected to continue through Friday. Additional weakening is forecast, but Darby is expected to remain a hurricane through early Thursday and a tropical storm through early Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 93W extending north through southern Mexico, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 13N between 90W and 96W. A tropical wave extends along 110W from 06N to 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 108W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 08N91W to 10N103W to 10N114W. The ITCZ is W of 140W at this time. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 78W and 115W and from 05N to 10N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Relatively low pressure is analyzed over the lower Colorado River Valley and across west Texas. There is a enough of a pressure gradient between these lows and ridging west of Baja California is supporting fresh to strong winds across the northern Gulf of California. These winds are expected to diminish in the next few hours, becoming moderate by early afternoon. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the Oaxaca offshores. For the forecast, the strong winds over the northern Gulf of California will diminish early this afternoon. Mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters into mid week. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later this week into the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two, then move west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low, but there is a high chance of formation through the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo and Nicaragua offshores with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds persist across the rest of the Central and South American offshore waters. Seas are 6-8 ft near the Galapagos Islands and the Ecuador offshore waters with 4-6 ft elsewhere in S swell. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also noted across the Gulf of Panama and off the western Colombian coast. For the forecast, generally moderate winds will persist through early next week across the region. Seas will build slightly south of 10N by Wed and continue through Fri. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later this week into the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two, then move west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. This system could potentially allow rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Wed night through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Hurricane Darby in the Special Features above. Outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-24N west of 125W through Fri, when the system moves west of 140W. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas is anticipated. $$ AKR