000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 14.7N 129.7W at 12/1500 UTC and is moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 100 nm of the western semicircle and within 70 nm of the eastern semicircle. Seas are estimated to be around 35 ft just to the northeast of the center. Seas will remain above 12 ft as the center of Darby crosses 140W. Darby is expected to continue moving toward the west today with a gradual west- northwestward turn beginning tonight into tomorrow. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours followed by more rapid weakening later this week.Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 92W extending north through southern Mexico, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 15N between 89W and 96W. A tropical wave extends along 109W from 05N to 15N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 108W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 09N89W to 10N101W to 09N114W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 78W and 127W and from 04N to 09N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Relatively low pressure is analyzed over the lower Colorado River Valley and across north central Mexico. There is a enough of a pressure gradient between these lows and ridging west of Baja California is supporting fresh to strong winds across the northern Gulf of California. These winds are expected to diminish in the next few hours, becoming moderate by early afternoon. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the Oaxaca offshores. For the forecast, the lower pressure over northern Mexico and along the Colorado River Valley will support a pulse of fresh to strong southerly winds over parts of the northern Gulf of California this morning, before diminishing this afternoon. Mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters into mid week. Looking ahead, a broad and disorganized area of low pressure persist well off the coast of northern Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward through Tue, then move west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low, but there is a high chance of formation through the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo and Nicaragua offshores with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds persist across the rest of the Central and South American offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft near the Galapagos Islands and 4-6 ft elsewhere in S swell. For the forecast, generally moderate winds will persist through early next week across the region. Seas will build slightly south of 10N through the early part of the week in SW swell. Looking ahead, a broad and disorganized area of low pressure persists well south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward through Tuesday, then move west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. This system could potentially allow rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Wed night through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Hurricane Darby in the Special Features above. Outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-25N west of 120W through Fri, when the system moves west of 140W. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas is anticipated. $$ AKR