000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120845 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Darby is centered near 14.7N 128.1W at 12/0900 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Darby is expected to stay at this intensity for another 12 to 18 hours then start to weaken as it continues westward. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Seas are estimated be at least 35 ft just to the northeast of the center. Seas will remain above 12 ft as the center of Darby crosses 140W. Darby is expected to continue moving westward today with a gradual turn to the west- northwest beginning tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 90W extending north through El Salvador, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 12N between 89W and 91W. A tropical wave extends along 108W from 05N to 15N, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N95W to 10N112W. The ITCZ extends from 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 118W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Relatively low pressure is analyzed over the lower Colorado River Valley and across north central Mexico. There is a enough of a pressure gradient between these lows and ridging west of Baja California is supporting moderate southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California. Upper dynamics across the region along with local effects will allow this gradient to increase through the morning, resulting in fresh and possibly strong southerly flow across the northern Gulf of California through the morning, diminishing by early afternoon. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the lower pressure over northern Mexico and along the Colorado River Valley will support a pulse of fresh to strong southerly winds over parts of the northern Gulf of California this morning, before diminishing this afternoon. Mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters into mid week. Looking ahead, a broad and disorganized area of low pressure persist well off the coast of northern Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward through Tue, then move west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low, but there is a high chance of formation through the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo and Nicaragua offshores with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds persist across the rest of the Central and South American offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft near the Galapagos Islands and 4-6 ft elsewhere in S swell. For the forecast, generally moderate winds will persist through early next week across the region. Seas will build slightly south of 10N through the early part of the week in SW swell. Looking ahead, a broad and disorganized area of low pressure persists well south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward through Tuesday, then move west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. This system could potentially allow rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Wed night through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Hurricane Darby in the Special Features above. Outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-25N west of 120W through Fri, when the system moves west of 140W. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas is anticipated. $$ Christensen