000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112223 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 14.7N 125.0W at 11/2100 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Darby is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby continues to intensify and numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 100 nm of the center. Seas continue to build, with maximum seas to 30 ft. Seas will remain above 12 ft as the center of Darby crosses 140W. Darby is expected to continue moving westward today with a gradual turn to the west- northwest beginning by Tuesday. Darby is expected to peak in intensity in the next day or so and then begin a weakening trend by midweek. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 08N along 85W extending north through northwestern Costa Rica, moving west around 10 kt. The convection associated with this wave is noted inland. A tropical wave extends along 106W from 05N to 17N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 101W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N93W to 10N101W to 09N109W. The ITCZ extends from 06N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 79W and 111W and from 05N to 08N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging north of 20N and west of the Baja California peninsula combined with a trough over the Gulf of California is forcing moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore zones. Seas are 5-7 ft in this region. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of California with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere with seas ranging 4-6 ft. For the forecast, winds will continue to be gentle to moderate off Baja California Norte over the next few days with occasional pulses of fresh winds near Punta Eugenia. Winds across the Gulf of California will pulse fresh to strong overnight and end by Tue morning. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist elsewhere for the next few days. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure has formed well south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward through Tuesday, then move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is low and a high chance of formation through the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo and Nicaragua offshores with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds persist across the rest of the Central and South American offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft near the Galapagos Islands and 4-6 ft elsewhere in S swell. For the forecast, generally moderate winds will persist through early next week across the region. Seas will build slightly south of 10N through the early part of the week in SW swell. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure has formed well south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward through Tuesday, then move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt later this week while remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. This system could potentially allow rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Wed night and into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Hurricane Darby in the Special Features above. The remnants of Bonnie have become an open trough beyond 140W. Winds are likely moderate to locally fresh from 20N to 24N and W of 135W. Seas are 8 ft. Conditions will improve by tonight in this area. Elsewhere, and outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-24N west of 120W through Thu night, when the system moves west of 140W. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas is anticipated. $$ AReinhart