723 AXPZ20 KNHC 112159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 14.7N 125.0W at 11/2100 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Darby is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby continues to intensify and numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 100 nm of the center. Seas continue to build, with maximum seas to 30 ft. Seas will remain above 12 ft as the center of Darby crosses 140W. Darby is expected to continue moving westward today with a gradual turn to the west- northwest beginning by Tuesday. Darby is expected to peak in intensity in the next day or so and then begin a weakening trend by midweek. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 08N along 85W extending north through northwestern Costa Rica, moving west around 10 kt. The convection associated with this wave is inland. A tropical wave extends along 106W from 05N to 17N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 101W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N93W to 10N101W to 09N109W. The ITCZ extends from 06N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 79W and 111W and from 05N to 08N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging north of 20N and west of the Baja California peninsula combined with a trough over the Gulf of California is forcing moderate to fresh NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore zones. A ship south of Guadalupe Island provided verification for this overnight. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft across Baja California Norte, with seas 4-6 ft over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds over the waters off Baja California Norte will improve by this afternoon. Fresh SE winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Tue morning. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist elsewhere for the next few days. Looking ahead, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of a low south of the coast of Mexico within the next day or two. This system could become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance of developing through the next 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo and Nicaragua offshores with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds persist across the rest of the Central and South American offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S swell across the region. For the forecast, generally moderate winds will persist through early next week across the region. Seas will build slightly south of 10N through the early part of the week in SW swell. Looking ahead, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of a low south of the coast of Mexico within the next day or two. This system could become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. This system could potentially allow rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Wed night and into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Tropical Storm Darby in the Special Features above. The remnants of Bonnie has become an open trough along 140W from 17N to 22N. Winds are near 20 kt along the northern portion of the trough and seas are 8 ft. Elsewhere, and outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 5-7 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-20N west of 120W through Thu night, when the system moves west of 140W. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas is anticipated. $$ AKR