000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jul 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Darby is centered near 14.6N 123.4W at 11/1500 UTC and is moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Darby continues to intensify and numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 100 nm of the center. Seas continue to build as well, with maximum seas estimated to be near 28 ft near the center. Darby will continue moving westward today with a gradual turn to the west- northwest beginning by Tuesday. Darby has been rapidly intensifying this morning and maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast today, and Darby is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane. Weakening is then forecast to begin by midweek. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends north of 08N along 83W extending north through eastern Costa Rica, moving west around 10 kt. Isolated convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 82W and 85W. A tropical wave extends along 104W from 05N to 17N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 102W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N97W to 10N112W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noterd from 04N to 11N between 78W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging north of 20N and west of the Baja California peninsula combined with a trough over the Gulf of California is forcing moderate to fresh NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore zones. A ship south of Guadalupe Island provided verification for this. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Mexican offshore waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will occur over the waters off Baja California Norte through the early morning. Fresh SE winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Tue morning. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist elsewhere for the next few days. Looking ahead, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter and this system could become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, potentially impacting the southern Mexican offshore zones on Thu and Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell persist across the waters of Central America, with 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell noted off Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, generally moderate winds will persist through early next week across the region. Seas will build slightly south of 10N through the early part of the week in SW swell. Looking ahead, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter and this system could become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, potentially allowing rough seas over the offshore waters of northern Central America by Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Tropical Storm Darby in the Special Features above. A 1014 mb low pressure area - the remnant low of Bonnie - is centered near 19N138W and may be dissipating into a trough currently. Winds to 25 kt and seas to 9 ft are possible near the center of the low. Elsewhere, and outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 6-8 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-20N west of 120W through Thu night, when the system moves west of our waters. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas is anticipated. $$ AKR