743 AXPZ20 KNHC 110322 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Darby is centered near 14.6N 120.6W at 11/0300 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Convection is building rapidly in the center of Darby as it becomes more organized. Strong thunderstorms are observed within 45 nm of the center, with scattered moderate convection within 60 nm. Seas are at least 16 ft near the center of the storm, but will increase substantially over the next day as Darby continues on a westward then west-northwest track. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 81W extending north through western Panama, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N along 102W, moving west around 15 kt. No significant weather is noted near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 10N110W, and from 09N120W to 07N125W to 07N130W. The ITCZ extends from 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 10N between 90W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging well west of the Baja California peninsula combined with a trough over the Gulf of California is forcing moderate to fresh NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore zones. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Mexican offshore waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will occur over the waters off Baja California Norte overnight. Fresh SE winds should occur over the northern Gulf of California Mon night and Tue morning. Quiescent winds and seas should persist elsewhere for the next few days. Looking ahead, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter and this system could become a tropical depression by late this week. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, potentially impacting the southern Mexican offshore zones on Thu and Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell persist across the waters of Central America, with 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell noted off Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected overnight in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua. Large S to SW swell should impact the equatorial zones Mon night and Tue, reaching the waters off Central America mid to late week. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent through at least mid- week.. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Tropical Storm Darby in the Special Features above. A 1012 mb low pressure area - the remnant low of Bonnie - is centered near 20N137W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass showed winds to 25 kt. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 10 ft within 60 nm to the northeast of the center. The low will continue to weaken overnight and dissipate Mon as it moves west of the area. Elsewhere, and outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 6-8 ft, primarily due to S to SE swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 13N-20N west of 120W through Thu night, when the system moves west of our waters. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas is anticipated. $$ Christensen