000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Darby is centered near 14.3N 117.6W at 10/1500 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 13 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 90 NM of Darby's center. This westward motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by midweek. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Darby is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday. Peak seas are forecast to reach near 25 ft by Tuesday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is north of 05N along 97W into SE Mexico, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-13N between 96W-104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N79W westward to 11N106W, and then again from 09N123W to 09N131W. The ITCZ continues from 09N131W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the convection noted with the tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 07N-10N east of 93W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 08N-12N between 121W-128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging well west of the Baja California peninsula combined with a trough over the Gulf of California is forcing moderate to fresh NW winds over the Baja California offshore zones. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Mexican offshore waters and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will occur over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula tonight through Mon night. Fresh to strong SE winds should occur over the N Gulf of California Mon night and Tue morning. Quiescent winds and seas should persist elsewhere for the next few days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the S coast of Mexico by mid-week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining offshore of the S coast of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker across all of the Central American and equatorial zones this morning. Seas are 5-7 ft due to S swell. For the forecast, pulses of fresh NE to E winds are expected during the late night and early morning hours in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Mon. Large S to SW swell should impact the equatorial zones Mon night and Tue. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent through at least mid-week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Tropical Storm Darby in the Special Features above. A 1012 mb low pressure area, the remnant low of Bonnie, is centered near 20N134W. The system has peak winds around 25 kt and seas around 10 ft. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the low's center. The low will continue to weaken today and tonight as it moves west of the area by Mon. Elsewhere, and outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. The resulting slight pressure gradient is supporting only gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-6 ft north of about 10N. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 6-8 ft, primarily due to S swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 13N-20N west of 117W through Thu night. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas is anticipated. $$ Landsea