000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100840 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Darby is centered near 14.3N 116.0W at 10/0900 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm in the northeast semicircle and 30 nm in the southwest semicircle of Darby. Darby will continue to intensify as it moves west- northwest, reaching hurricane strength Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is north of 05N along 95W into SE Mexico, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 97W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Segments of the monsoon trough extend from Panama near 09N78W to 11N108W, and from 11N120W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 10N between 85W and 92W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, following the tropical wave move through the region with an assist from local drainage flow. Seas over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are estimated to be 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging north of 20N is maintaining gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas off Baja California, off southwest Mexico, and across the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the early morning, then diminish. Moderate to fresh NW winds will occur over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula tonight through Tue night. Fresh to strong S to SE winds may occur over the N Gulf of California Mon night and Tue morning. Quiescent winds and seas should persist elsewhere through at least the middle of next week. Looking ahead, fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec again by Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring across the the Gulf of Papagayo/offshore Nicaragua region and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough with light variable winds elsewhere. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell in the equatorial zones and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, pulses of fresh NE to E winds are expected during the late night and early morning hours in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Mon. Large S to SW swell should impact the equatorial zones beginning Mon night. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent through at least mid- week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Tropical Storm Darby in the Special Features above. A 1012 mb low pressure area, the remnant low of Bonnie, is centered near 19N132W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass near the center of the low indicated winds were at least 25 kt, but winds to 30 kt are possible just outside the swath of the scatterometer pass and closer to the center of the low. Seas are estimated still be close to 11 ft. The low will continue to weaken today and tonight as it moves west of the area, allowing winds and seas to gradually diminish accordingly. Elsewhere, and outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W, supporting gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-7 ft. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 6-8 ft, primarily due to S swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-20N west of 115W through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the same period. SE to S swell will continue to force 6-8 ft seas south of 10N for the next few days. $$ Christensen