000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100329 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Darby is centered near 14.3N 114.9W at 10/0300 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 60 nm of Darby. Darby will continue to intensify as it moves west- northwest, reaching hurricane strength by Sun night/early Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is north of 05N along 94W into SE Mexico, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 94W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Segments of the monsoon trough extend from Panama near 09N78W to 11N108W, and from 11N118W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N between 83W and 87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh N gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this evening with seas to 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging north of 20N is maintaining gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas off Baja California, off southwest Mexico, and across the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight. Moderate to fresh NW winds will occur over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula tonight through Tue night. Fresh to strong S to SE winds may occur over the N Gulf of California Mon night and Tue morning. Quiescent winds and seas should persist elsewhere through at least the middle of next week. Looking ahead, fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec again by Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E winds are occurring across the the Gulf of Papagayo/offshore Nicaragua region and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough with light variable winds elsewhere. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell in the equatorial zones and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, pulses of fresh NE to E winds are expected late night and early morning hours in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Mon. Large S to SW swell should impact the equatorial zones beginning Mon night. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent through at least mid- week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Tropical Storm Darby in the Special Features above. A 1008 mb low pressure area, the remnant low of Bonnie, is centered near 20N130W. Winds are likely still reaching 30 kt within 60 nm in the northeast quadrant of this low pressure, with seas to 12 ft. But no showers or thunderstorms are noted near the center of this low, and it is expected to dissipate over the next 24 to 36 hours as the low moves westward at 10 to 15 kt, and as winds and seas continue to diminish. Elsewhere, outside of Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W, supporting gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-7 ft. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 6-8 ft, primarily due to S swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Darby from 12N-20N west of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through mid-week. SE to S swell will continue to force 6-8 ft seas south of 10N for the next few days. $$ Christensen