000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie is centered near 19.5N 129.4W at 09/2100 UTC moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring is association with the tropical storm. A westward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. Some weakening is forecast through Sunday, and the post-tropical low is expected to dissipate by Sunday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Darby is centered near 14.3N 113.5W at 09/2100 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 13N-16N between 110W-116W. This westward motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown over the next several days. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Darby is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is north of 04N along 93W into SE Mexico, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-10N between 88W-97W. A tropical wave is along 113W extending from 08N to 20N, moving west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 13N-16N between 110W-116W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W to 08N92W to Tropical Storm Darby at 14.3N113.5W to 09N132W. The ITCZ continues from 09N132W to beyond 09N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical wave and Tropical Storm Darby, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-10N east of 88W and scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-12N between 120W-137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from 30N122W to 20N107W. Fresh N gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this afternoon with seas to 5-6 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican waters with seas 4-5 ft offshore and 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will occur over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula tonight through Tue night. Fresh to strong S to SE winds may occur over the N Gulf of California Mon night and Tue morning. Quiescent winds and seas should persist elsewhere through at least the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E winds are occurring across the the Gulf of Papagayo/offshore Nicaragua region and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough with light variable winds elsewhere. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell in the equatorial zones and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, pulses of fresh NE to E winds are expected late night and early morning hours in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Mon. Large S to SW swell should impact the equatorial zones beginning Mon night. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent through at least mid- week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie and newly named Tropical Storm Darby in the Special Features above. Outside of Bonnie and Darby, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 107W, supporting gentle to moderate NE trades with seas 5-7 ft. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE winds veering to SW are present with seas 6-8 ft, primarily due to S swell. For the forecast, conditions will be dominated by Bonnie and Darby from 14N-21N west of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through mid-week. SE to S swell will continue to force 6-8 ft seas south of 10N for the next few days. $$ Landsea