000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 19.5N 127.7W at 09/1500 UTC moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring is association with the tropical storm. Weakening is expected, and Bonnie should become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The post- tropical low should dissipate by early next week. This general motion should continue until Bonnie dissipates early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1008 mb low pressure area centered near 14N111W continues to become better organized along a tropical wave. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 12N-16N between 110W-114W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the central part of the eastern North Pacific basin today or tomorrow while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt. Winds are currently predicted to reach 30 kt and seas up to 10 ft by Mon morning in association with this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is north of 05N along 90W into Central America, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted in association with this wave. A tropical wave is along 111W extending from 08N to 20N, moving west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 12N-16N between 110W-114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N78W to 08N92W to a 1008 mb low near 14N111W to 09N131W. The ITCZ continues from 09N131W to beyond 09N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-11N east of 105W and scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-11N between 123W-130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical cyclone forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week. Surface ridging extends from 30N120W to 20N110W. Fresh to strong N gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this morning with seas to 6-7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican waters with seas 4-5 ft offshore and 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will occur over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula tonight through Mon night. Fresh to strong S winds may occur over the N Gulf of California Mon night and Tue morning. Quiescent winds and seas should persist elsewhere through at least the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E winds are occurring across the the Gulf of Papagayo/offshore Nicaragua region and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough with light variable winds elsewhere. Seas are 6-7 ft in S swell in the equatorial zones and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, pulses of fresh NE to E winds are expected late night and early morning hours in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Mon. Large S to SW swell should impact the equatorial zones Mon night through Tue night before diminishing Wed. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent through at least mid-week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Bonnie, and for information on a possible tropical cyclone forecast to form well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Outside of Bonnie, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, supporting gentle to moderate winds with seas 3 to 5 ft north of 25N and moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 25N and west of 120W. Outside of the area near the low pressure along the tropical wave, gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough and east of 120W, except near the tropical wave as described above. For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually increase near the low pressure along the tropical wave as it continues to move farther west. Farther south, large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. $$ Landsea